Last updated:
Sources referenced in this update: Cromford Report (summary commentary), ARMLS (market activity context), Bureau of Labor Statistics (Phoenix CPI + wages), Federal Reserve (policy calendar).
Greater Phoenix Housing Market Update — December 2025 (Sold Data + Trends)
Q: What is happening in the Greater Phoenix housing market in December 2025?
A: Closed home sales in Greater Phoenix rose at nearly four times the national rate for November, climbing 4.3% compared to 1.2% nationally, according to data from Phoenix REALTORS®. Year-to-date closed sales rose 3.9%.Contract activity is tracking as the strongest fourth quarter in about three years. The mid-price range around the $450,000 median is shifting toward sellers, including a reported 15-to-3 weekly seller-advantage ratio. Entry-level affordability has improved compared with peak conditions, with first-time buyer payments estimated at roughly 13–15% lower than last year in the under-$400K range.
What changed this month
Median anchor: About $450,000 is used as the current median sales price reference point.
Trend signal: Mid-price activity is becoming more favorable for sellers week over week.
Important context: Metro-wide averages combine very different sub-markets. A rise in luxury closings can push price-per-square-foot higher even if most homes did not increase in value.
For buyers: affordability improves under $400K
Market conditions vary by price range. Higher-priced homes remain expensive, but the entry-level market has improved since the 2022 peak. Prices under $400K are estimated to be down about 10–14% from peak levels and about 3–5% year over year. Mortgage rates near 6.25%, compared with roughly 7.25% earlier in 2025, help explain why first-time buyer payments are estimated to be 13–15% lower than last year.
Loan structure matters. For a $400,000 loan at 6.25%, a 30-year mortgage is estimated near $2,463 per month for principal and interest, compared with about $2,180 on a 50-year loan. The lower payment comes with much slower equity growth. After about three years, the 30-year loan would reduce the balance by roughly $15,000, compared with about $3,800 on a 50-year loan.
For sellers: the short-term trend favors sellers
Demand has been rising while supply has been shrinking faster than normal for this time of year. In the mid-price range near the median, the reported weekly ratio shows 15 areas improving for sellers versus 3 improving for buyers. Scottsdale and San Tan Valley were cited as recently shifting from buyer-favoring to seller-favoring conditions.
Active supply is estimated to be down about 5% month over month. Listing expirations are up roughly 43% year over year, and cancellations are up about 20%, both of which reduce active inventory. Buyers still have about 14% more options than last year, but overall balance is shifting toward sellers.
Seasonal effects and the price-per-square-foot spike
December data can look unusual because of changes in which homes are closing. Early December figures cite about $224.14/sf for homes under $500K, $307.87/sf for homes between $500K and $1.5M, and $642.86/sf for homes over $1.5M. The overall metro average is cited near $318.38/sf, up from about $296.87/sf, largely due to more high-end closings and fewer lower-priced closings.
Key metrics
| Metric | Value | Notes |
|---|
| Median sales price | ~$450,000 | Metro reference point |
| Seller advantage ratio | 15 to 3 | Weekly mid-price trend |
| Active supply change | ~-5% | Month over month |
| Buyer choice vs last year | ~+14% | Still more options than 2024 |
| Entry-level payments | -13% to -15% | Under $400K range |
FAQ
Is Greater Phoenix a buyer’s or seller’s market?
The market is broadly balanced overall, but the mid-price range near the $450,000 median is shifting toward sellers.
Why did price-per-square-foot jump?
More luxury closings and fewer lower-priced closings increased the metro average, even though most homes did not see sudden value jumps.
Are investors flooding the market with rentals?
Available data do not show unusually high numbers of former rentals being listed for sale in late 2025.
