Published: | Data as of: | Compared to: | Coverage: Mesa, AZ (city-level) | Source: Cromford® Daily Market Snapshot (Single Family Detached)
Mesa | Arizona | Market Updates
March 2026 Mesa Housing Market Update
Mesa, AZ - city-level snapshot for single-family detached homes.
Q: What is happening in the Mesa housing market right now?
A: As of , Mesa is seller-leaning with buyer negotiation room: 2.5 months of supply (excluding UCB/CCBS), median monthly sold price $500,000, days on market (sold) 69 days,
and an average sale-to-list of 98.25%.
What this means
- Negotiation: Homes are selling for about 98.25% of list price on average - roughly 1.75% under asking, which is tighter than you might expect in a market with this much inventory movement.
- How much is for sale: Inventory sits at 2.5 months (excluding UCB/CCBS). That is still a seller-leaning supply level - buyers have fewer options than they did a year ago at this same metric.
- How long it takes: Recently-sold homes averaged 69 days on market; active listings average 71 days. Those two numbers being close together tells you the market is moving at a fairly steady pace.
- Pricing reality ($/SF): Monthly sold $/SF is $268.86 while active list $/SF is $288.12. That gap is where pricing conversations happen.
This is a rolling snapshot (today vs the same date last month) so buyers and sellers can see leverage shifts without waiting for month-end reporting.
Written by Andrea Scheppe, Phoenix native and REALTOR® with HomeSmart Elite, Valley Solutions Team.
Mesa reality check: Active listings ticked up (1,247 → 1,275) while sales per month also climbed (367 → 406).
Pending listings jumped (292 → 342) and listings under contract rose (532 → 601), which is a solid sign of buyer activity picking up.
Median monthly sold price held firm at $500,000 (same as last month) and the Cromford® Market Index climbed to 115.6, up from 118.6 last snapshot - still firmly seller-leaning.
Median sold price (monthly sales)
$500,000 FLAT ($490,000 → $500,000)
Inventory (months of supply, excl. UCB)
2.5 mo TIGHTER (2.7 → 2.5)
Speed (DOM, sold)
69 days FASTER (73 → 69)
Negotiation (avg sale price % of list)
98.25% STRONGER (97.78% → 98.25%)
Market call
Market: SELLER-LEANING (BUYERS HAVE SOME ROOM TO NEGOTIATE)
Seller-leaning because the Cromford® Market Index is 115.6 - anything over 100 puts sellers in the driver's seat.
Buyers still have some negotiating room because average sale price % of list is 98.25%, and active DOM is running at 71 days, so older listings do see movement on price.
At 2.5 months of supply (excluding UCB/CCBS), this is not a market flush with choices - but it is not a frenzy either.
Quick pulse vs last month ( → ):
active listings 1,247 → 1,275, pending 292 → 342,
under contract 532 → 601, and sales/month 367 → 406.
Pricing per sq ft: Active list $/SF $282.80 → $288.12; Monthly sold $/SF $269.96 → $268.86; Under contract $/SF $276.58 → $273.71.
Buyer standings - March 2026 (what to do)
Hey, this is a lot of information but you do not have to absorb it all at once. Here is the short version of what matters for buyers right now.
- Negotiation exists but is tight: Sale-to-list is 98.25% - you are not walking in and knocking 5% off. But you are also not in a bidding war on everything.
- Use the $/SF spread: Active list is $288.12/sf vs monthly sold $268.86/sf. If a home's list price per sq ft sits well above closed comps, that is your opening to negotiate price or ask for credits.
- Time helps on stale listings: Active DOM is 71 days. Homes that have been sitting are where concessions and price reductions tend to show up.
- Supply is still lean: At 2.5 months, the inventory of well-priced homes moves. Do not assume everything will wait for you.
Seller standings - March 2026 (what matters)
- Seller-leaning, not a sure thing: CMI is 115.6 and supply is 2.5 months - that is favorable. But buyers are paying 98.25% of list on average, not over ask. Pricing still matters.
- Overpricing has a cost: Sold DOM is 69 days. Homes that sit past that window tend to attract lower offers and more conditions - not a place you want to be.
- Price to the closing market: Buyers are closing around $268.86/sf (monthly sold). Active listings are asking $288.12/sf. The closer you are to supported comps, the faster and cleaner your sale.
- Execution is not optional: Listing success rate is 79.6% - roughly 1 in 5 listings does not sell. Photos, prep, pricing, and access separate the successful group from the ones that sit.
Notes & FAQ
This is a rolling daily snapshot (today vs the same date last month), using Mesa single-family detached metrics from the Cromford® Daily Market Snapshot.
It is designed to answer "where do buyers and sellers stand right now?" without waiting for month-end reporting.
Quick definitions: Months of supply = how much is for sale, DOM = how long it takes, sale-to-list = how much people negotiate, and $/SF = price per square foot.
What is Mesa's inventory right now?
About 2.5 months of supply (excluding UCB/CCBS) as of .
Are buyers negotiating in Mesa?
There is some room: sale-to-list is 98.25% as of , meaning homes sell close to - but slightly under - asking price on average.
Is Mesa a buyer's market right now?
No - the Cromford® Market Index is 115.6 as of , which puts Mesa in seller-leaning territory.
What is the median home price in Mesa right now?
The median sold price for single-family detached homes (monthly sales) is $500,000 as of .
Open: Mesa daily snapshot table (Today vs last month vs last quarter vs last year vs 2 years ago)
Mesa Daily Market Snapshot - Single Family Detached
| Metric | Today () | Same day last month () | Last quarter () | Same day last year () | 2 years ago () |
|---|
| Active listings | 1,275 | 1,247 | 1,073 | 1,330 | 919 |
| UCB & CCBS listings | 259 | 240 | 162 | 226 | 216 |
| Active listings excl. UCB | 1,016 | 1,007 | 911 | 1,104 | 703 |
| Pending listings | 342 | 292 | 207 | 325 | 344 |
| Listings under contract | 601 | 532 | 369 | 551 | 560 |
| Sales per month | 406 | 367 | 378 | 436 | 451 |
| Days on market (sold) | 69 | 73 | 70 | 69 | 59 |
| Days on market (active) | 71 | 76 | 89 | 73 | 69 |
| Days inventory excl. UCB | 78 | 77 | 71 | 88 | 56 |
| Months of supply (excl. UCB) | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.6 |
| Active listings $/SF | $288.12 | $282.80 | $282.32 | $292.16 | $288.30 |
| Under contract $/SF | $273.71 | $276.58 | $271.67 | $277.60 | $283.87 |
| Monthly sales $/SF | $268.86 | $269.96 | $270.11 | $271.00 | $267.73 |
| Annual sales $/SF | $268.68 | $268.59 | $268.89 | $273.59 | $263.64 |
| Appreciation - monthly $/SF | -0.8% | -0.9% | -1.5% | 0.9% | 4.5% |
| Appreciation - annual $/SF | -1.8% | -1.7% | -1.5% | 3.7% | -1.7% |
| Appreciation - monthly median | 2.1% | 1.6% | -1.0% | -0.5% | 6.5% |
| Appreciation - annual median | 0.2% | -0.1% | -1.0% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| Avg sale price % of list | 98.25% | 97.78% | 97.81% | 98.38% | 98.53% |
| Listing success rate | 79.6% | 80.5% | 71.5% | 79.1% | 82.3% |
| Monthly dollar volume | $230M | $198M | $220M | $238M | $250M |
| Annual dollar volume | $2,687M | $2,670M | $2,642M | $2,575M | $2,488M |
| Average price (monthly sales) | $566,508 | $539,390 | $581,599 | $545,863 | $555,249 |
| Median price (monthly sales) | $500,000 | $490,000 | $500,000 | $489,500 | $490,000 |
| Average SF - monthly sales | 2,107 | 1,998 | 2,153 | 2,014 | 2,074 |
| Contract ratio | 59.2 | 52.8 | 40.5 | 49.9 | 79.7 |
| Cromford® Supply Index | 71.2 | 67.5 | 67.5 | 74.1 | 48.2 |
| Cromford® Demand Index | 82.3 | 82.0 | 80.0 | 77.5 | 77.1 |
| Cromford® Market Index | 115.6 | 121.5 | 118.6 | 104.5 | 159.8 |
Note: months of supply is reported excluding UCB/CCBS inventory.
Disclaimer (method): This post uses the Cromford® Daily Market Snapshot for Mesa single-family detached homes,
comparing against the same-day snapshot from (and prior periods where shown). Numbers can shift as listing statuses change and sales record.
Verify current conditions for time-sensitive pricing or offer decisions.
