Published : July 8, 2026 Data as of : July 2, 2026 Compared to : June 2, 2026 Coverage : Mesa, AZ (city-level) • Source : Cromford® Daily Market Snapshot (Single Family Detached)
Mesa • Arizona • Market Updates
Mesa Housing Market July 2026 Mesa, AZ – city-level snapshot for single-family detached homes.
Q: What is happening in the Mesa housing market right now?
A: As of July 2, 2026 seller-leaning with modest buyer negotiation room : 2.2 months of supply (excluding UCB/CCBS), median monthly sold price $489,495 , days on market (sold) 64 days,
and an average sale-to-list of 98.05% . The Cromford® Market Index is 120.3 – essentially unchanged from last month’s 120.4.
What this means Negotiation: Homes are selling for about 98.05% of list price on average – roughly 1.95% under asking. That is about even with last month’s 98.00%, so buyers’ room has not changed.How much is for sale: Inventory sits at 2.2 months (excluding UCB/CCBS) – even with last month and well under last July’s 2.8. Buyers still have fewer choices than a year ago.How long it takes: Recently-sold homes averaged 64 days on market, about even with 65 last month; active listings average 75 days . The gap between those two numbers tells you well-priced homes are moving faster than the broader active pool.Pricing reality ($/SF): Monthly sold $/SF is $268.71 while active list $/SF is $286.99 . That spread is where overpriced listings get tested. This is a rolling snapshot (today vs the same date last month ) so buyers and sellers can see leverage shifts without waiting for month-end reporting.
Written by Andrea Scheppe , Phoenix native and REALTOR® with HomeSmart Elite, Valley Solutions Team.
Mesa reality check: The Cromford® Market Index held essentially flat at 120.3 (from 120.4), and both sides cooled together again – the Supply Index eased (73.7 to 70.4 ) and the Demand Index eased (88.7 to 84.7 ), so the balance barely moved.
Closings dipped (472 to 448 ) while supply stayed lean at 2.2 months (excluding UCB/CCBS) and active listings fell (1,275 to 1,187 ).
Pricing was mixed this month: the median monthly sold price edged up from $485,000 to $489,495 while monthly sold $/SF fell from $274.04 to $268.71 , with average closed size about flat (2,070 to 2,058 sq ft) – so both moves are real reads, not a size-mix artifact.
The seller-execution signal is the listing success rate, which dropped from 81.0% to 75.8% . The pipeline thinned too: pending fell (254 to 224 ) and under-contract listings dropped (507 to 430 ). Seller-leaning, holding steady, with a softer per-foot and success-rate read.
Median sold price (monthly sales)
$489,495 UP ($485,000 → $489,495)
Inventory (months of supply, excl. UCB)
2.2 mo FLAT (2.2 → 2.2)
Speed (DOM, sold)
64 days FLAT (65 → 64)
Negotiation (avg sale price % of list)
98.05% FLAT (98.00% → 98.05%)
Market call Market: SELLER-LEANING – HOLDING STEADY
Seller-leaning because the Cromford® Market Index is 120.3 – anything over 100 puts sellers in the driver’s seat. The index barely moved from 120.4, and both sides cooled together: the Supply Index eased from 73.7 to 70.4 and the Demand Index from 88.7 to 84.7 . This is a steady market, not a turning one.
Buyers have modest negotiating room because average sale price % of list is 98.05% – about even with last month – and active DOM is running at 75 days , so listings that have been sitting tend to see some movement on price.
At 2.2 months of supply (excluding UCB/CCBS), this is a lean inventory market – well-priced homes are not sitting. The signals that cut against the steady headline: monthly sold $/SF dipped to $268.71 , the listing success rate fell to 75.8% , and the pipeline thinned (pending 224 , under contract 430 ).
Quick pulse vs last month (6/2 → 7/2 1,275 → 1,187 , pending 254 → 224 ,
under contract 507 → 430 , and sales/month 472 → 448 .
Pricing per sq ft: Active list $/SF $286.59 → $286.99 ; Monthly sold $/SF $274.04 → $268.71 ; Under contract $/SF $273.06 → $268.81 .
Asking prices held while closed and under-contract prices eased – the per-foot pullback is where this month’s softer pricing shows up.
Buyer standings – July 2026 (what to do) Here is the buyer takeaway for July 2026.
Negotiation exists but is modest: Sale-to-list is 98.05% – about 1.95% under ask on average, about even with last month. You are not knocking 5% off, but the right offer still gets traction.The $/SF spread is your map: Active list is $286.99/sf vs monthly sold $268.71/sf – about $18 apart. Listings priced well above that closed number are where reductions show up.Time helps on stale listings: Active DOM is 75 days while sold homes averaged 64. Homes that have been sitting past that average are where concessions and price reductions tend to show up.Supply stayed lean: Months of supply held at 2.2 , even with last month, while closings ran at 448 . The inventory of well-priced homes moves – do not assume everything will wait for you.On the price read: The median edged up to $489,495 while sold $/SF eased to $268.71 , with average closed size about flat. Those point in opposite directions – anchor your offer to recent closed comps, not the headline median.Seller standings – July 2026 (what matters) Seller-leaning and steady: CMI is 120.3 , flat from 120.4, and supply is lean at 2.2 months – favorable territory. Buyers are paying 98.05% of list on average, not over ask, so pricing still matters.The success rate drop is your warning light: Listing success fell from 81.0% to 75.8% this month – roughly one in four listings is now failing to sell. The market is lean, but it is punishing weak pricing and presentation harder than it did last month.Per-foot pricing softened: Monthly sold $/SF dipped to $268.71 even as the median edged up to $489,495 , with average closed size about flat. Your specific home’s value is what closed comps say it is – price to this month’s closings, not the headline median.Price to the closing market: Buyers are closing around $268.71/sf and going under contract at $268.81/sf ; active listings are asking $286.99/sf . The under-contract number is where serious buyers are playing right now.Speed held: Sold DOM is 64 days , about even with 65 last month, and sale-to-list held at 98.05% . Homes priced right are still moving – it is the overpriced ones dragging the success rate.Notes & FAQ This is a rolling daily snapshot (today vs the same date last month), using Mesa single-family detached metrics from the Cromford® Daily Market Snapshot.
It is designed to answer “where do buyers and sellers stand right now?” without waiting for month-end reporting.
Quick definitions: Months of supply = how much is for sale, DOM = how long it takes, sale-to-list = how much people negotiate, and $/SF = price per square foot.
What is Mesa’s inventory right now?
About 2.2 months of supply (excluding UCB/CCBS) as of 7/2/26
Are buyers negotiating in Mesa?
There is some room: sale-to-list is 98.05% as of 7/2/26
Is Mesa a buyer’s market right now?
No – the Cromford® Market Index is 120.3 as of 7/2/26
What is the median home price in Mesa right now?
The median sold price for single-family detached homes (monthly sales) is $489,495 as of 7/2/26
Open: Mesa daily snapshot table (Today vs last month vs last quarter vs last year vs 2 years ago) Mesa Daily Market Snapshot – Single Family Detached Metric Today (7/2/26 ) Same day last month (6/2/26 ) Last quarter (4/2/26 ) Same day last year (7/2/25 ) 2 years ago (7/2/24 ) Active listings 1,187 1,275 1,273 1,332 950 UCB & CCBS listings 206 253 249 202 175 Active listings excl. UCB 981 1,022 1,024 1,130 775 Pending listings 224 254 318 233 265 Listings under contract 430 507 567 435 440 Sales per month 448 472 479 410 440 Sales per year 4,868 4,814 4,794 4,536 4,485 Days on market (sold) 64 65 66 67 49 Days on market (active) 75 76 70 79 58 Days inventory excl. UCB 74 78 78 91 63 Months of supply (excl. UCB) 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.8 1.8 Active listings $/SF $286.99 $286.59 $288.55 $288.49 $289.00 Under contract $/SF $268.81 $273.06 $272.66 $271.34 $277.89 Monthly sales $/SF $268.71 $274.04 $265.70 $268.97 $272.63 Annual sales $/SF $267.70 $267.75 $268.26 $272.51 $271.03 Appreciation – monthly $/SF -0.1% -0.3% -2.1% -1.3% 5.2% Appreciation – annual $/SF -1.8% -1.9% -1.9% 0.5% 4.9% Appreciation – monthly median -1.4% -1.0% -1.0% 0.3% -1.0% Appreciation – annual median 0.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 4.1% Avg sale price % of list 98.05% 98.00% 98.09% 98.02% 98.09% Annual change supply -13.2% -12.7% -9.2% 45.8% 61.1% Annual change sales rate 5.9% 4.1% -2.2% -7.2% 1.5% Annual change under contract -1.1% 7.9% 10.7% -1.1% -2.4% Listing success rate 75.8% 81.0% 80.9% 71.4% 81.2% Monthly dollar volume $248M $268M $264M $232M $246M Annual dollar volume $2,709M $2,686M $2,687M $2,550M $2,507M Average price (monthly sales) $553,098 $567,323 $550,984 $565,746 $559,134 Average price (annual sales) $556,556 $557,978 $560,453 $562,119 $559,047 Median price (monthly sales) $489,495 $485,000 $494,990 $496,500 $495,000 Median price (annual sales) $490,000 $494,940 $494,695 $490,000 $489,326 Average SF – monthly sales 2,058 2,070 2,074 2,103 2,051 Average SF – annual sales 2,079 2,084 2,089 2,063 2,063 Contract ratio 43.8 49.6 55.4 38.5 56.8 Cromford® Supply Index 70.4 73.7 72.0 79.7 51.9 Cromford® Demand Index 84.7 88.7 83.8 73.9 72.3 Cromford® Market Index 120.3 120.4 116.3 92.7 139.1
Note: months of supply is reported excluding UCB/CCBS inventory.
Disclaimer (method): This post uses the Cromford® Daily Market Snapshot for Mesa single-family detached homes,
comparing 7/2/26 6/2/26
