Written by Andrea Scheppe, Phoenix native and full-time, award-winning REALTOR® with HomeSmart Elite, Valley Solutions Team. This update is written for home buyers, home sellers, and people moving to Arizona who need a clear read on Phoenix real estate conditions.
Q: Is Greater Phoenix a buyer’s market or seller’s market in September 2026?
A: It depends far more on your price point and your city than on the metro headline. The Cromford® Report’s September commentary does not assign Greater Phoenix a single buyer-or-seller label this month. What it does say is that conventional mortgage rates jumped in under two weeks and that the volatility, not the rate level itself, stalled buyer demand back to 2023 and 2024 levels. Home values are described as stable and unlikely to crash, though they may glide with less demand. August closings fell 6.3%, the first month all year that sales did not beat 2025, while the luxury market went the other way. Buyers continue to negotiate within about 97% to 97.5% of the last list price. Across the ten Valley markets I track individually in the Cromford® Daily Market Snapshot, leverage currently runs from strongly seller-leaning in Scottsdale to strongly buyer-leaning in Queen Creek, so the metro number is the least useful number for your decision.
September 2026 market call
Stable prices, unstable payments. That is the infographic’s own headline this month. Rate volatility paused buyers; it did not reprice homes.
Sales activity
August closings were down 6.3%, the first time all year that monthly sales did not outperform 2025. Luxury ran the opposite direction.
Prices
Described as stable. This month’s infographic does not publish a metro median or average sales price, so no price figure is quoted here.
Negotiation
Buyers are negotiating within about 97% to 97.5% of last list price, and 59% of August MLS sales carried a seller-paid incentive.
Greater Phoenix housing market snapshot: September 2026
Every figure below comes from the September Cromford® Report infographic and commentary, except the mortgage-rate direction. This month’s infographic does not publish a metro median price, average price, total closing count, months of supply, or a permit figure, so those rows are omitted rather than carried over from August.
| Signal | September 2026 read | What it means |
|---|
| Closed sales | August closings were down 6.3%, the first time all year monthly sales did not outperform 2025. | The streak broke. One month is not a trend, but this is the clearest sign yet that the rate move reached the closing table. |
| Mortgage rates | The 30-year fixed rose again over the past week, its third consecutive weekly increase, and sits meaningfully above where it was a year ago. | Cromford’s commentary is explicit that the volatility, not the level, is what paused buyers. Rising is the harder condition of the two. |
| Prices | Characterized as stable, with market indicators not supporting a crash, though values may glide with less demand. | Stable is not the same as rising. Sellers pricing off a 2025 comp are pricing into a slower month. |
| Seller-paid incentives | 59% of all August MLS sales involved a seller-paid incentive, at a median cost to the seller of just over $10,000. | Concessions are now the majority case, not the exception. Budget for one before you list. |
| Where incentives concentrate | The top price range for incentives is $350,000 to $400,000, where 71% of sales included one. | If your home sits in that band, assume a buydown or closing-cost credit is part of the deal. |
| Negotiation | Buyers have negotiated around 97% to 97.5% of the last list price for nearly two years. | Remarkably steady through every rate swing. The list price you set is what moves, not the discount. |
| Time on market and price | Under contract within 15 days averages 99% of original asking. One to two months averages 95%. Three to four months averages 90%. | The cost of overpricing is measurable here. Ten percent of your price is the penalty for a four-month listing. |
| Luxury | August sales over $1.5M rose 15% year over year. Sales over $3M rose 59%, with 62 closings against 39 last year. | Luxury buyers are driven by the stock market and corporate profits, not mortgage rates, so this segment decoupled from the metro slowdown. |
| Fourth-quarter outlook | Expect a median of 50 to 60 days on market before an accepted contract in Q4. October is a popular listing month, especially in luxury and retirement communities. | More competition arriving without a matching rise in demand. Listing in October means listing against more sellers. |
Why Phoenix real estate feels uneven right now
Greater Phoenix is not one market. Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Arcadia, Ahwatukee, Chandler, Mesa, Queen Creek, Buckeye, and San Tan Valley can show very different leverage at the same time. Price point matters. Builder competition matters. Condition matters. So does whether the home is resale, new construction, upgraded, dated, or sitting next to better inventory.
The split is unusually wide this month. In the Cromford® Daily Market Snapshot figures I track city by city, the Cromford® Market Index ranges from 158.3 in Scottsdale, which is strongly seller-leaning, down to 52.3 in Queen Creek, which is strongly buyer-leaning. Three of the nine cities that carry a published index are buyer-leaning, and Tempe crossed out of balanced territory this month. A metro-level statement cannot describe both ends of that range at once.
The same split shows up by price. August closings overall fell 6.3% while sales over $3 million rose 59%. Metro-wide headlines are useful, but incomplete. The real pricing decision happens at the ZIP, neighborhood, property type, and comp level on a block-by-block basis. For the city-level read, see the monthly housing market updates for each Valley city.
Entry-level and lower price ranges
This month’s infographic does not break out price movement under $300,000, so no figure is quoted. What it does show is where concessions land: the $350,000 to $400,000 band leads the metro, with 71% of sales including a seller-paid incentive.
Middle market
The typical sale now involves a concession. Across all MLS sales in August, 59% included seller-paid closing costs or a rate buydown, at a median cost to the seller of just over $10,000. Buydowns can cut a buyer’s principal and interest payment by 10% to 20% for a year or two.
Luxury
Sales over $1.5 million rose 15% year over year in August, and sales over $3 million rose 59% with 62 closings against 39 a year ago. Cromford’s analyst attributes this to stock market performance and record corporate profits rather than financing costs.
New construction areas
The commentary expects builder incentives to ramp up through the fourth quarter, which is seasonally the strongest stretch of the year for buyers in Greater Phoenix. Builder buydowns and credits cap what nearby resale listings can hold.
This month from The Cromford® Report
The commentary below is reproduced in full from The Cromford® Report monthly infographic, written by their senior housing analyst. It is the metro-wide read behind the numbers in the snapshot above, and it is their work, not mine.
Mortgage Rates: We’ve Had Worse
Home Prices are Stable, Payments are Volatile
For Buyers
The best description for the housing market vibe this month is disappointment. Average mortgage rates are front and center again, and not in a good way. After hovering around 6.75% for most of August, conventional rates shot up to 7.24% in less than 2 weeks in anticipation of the Federal Reserve raising the Fed Funds Rate. That is nearly a half percent increase, equating to roughly a 5% increase in a principal and interest payment. On a $3,000 monthly payment, it’s an extra $150, which isn’t enough to disqualify most active buyers but the “shock and awe” has stalled demand back to 2023 and 2024 levels.
Home values didn’t crash in 2023 or 2024 when rates were routinely over 7.25%, and market indicators do not support a crash in 2026. However, they may glide with less demand. Ironically, it’s not the rate itself that has caused such a sharp pause in buyer activity, because more homes sold in previous years with the same or higher rates. It’s the volatility of the rate. Buyers typically pause when the rate is actively rising or actively falling, waiting for it to find stability. This pause provides a window of opportunity for those buyers who can shoulder a higher payment temporarily and negotiate a better deal on the price or terms of their purchase. When rates decline again, they may refinance their home and enjoy a lower payment.
Those who purchased in 2023 at 8% in October were able to refinance at 6.6% by December, or 6.1% by September 2024. Rates increased to 7.25% by January 2025, and those buyers were able to refinance to 6.1% by September. As a rule of thumb, every 1% change in mortgage rate equates to roughly a 10% difference on the principal and interest payment.
Meanwhile, incentives remain primarily focused on seller-paid closing costs and rate buydowns that effectively drop a buyer’s principal and interest payment temporarily by 10-20% for a year or two. In August, 59% of all MLS sales involved some form of seller-paid incentive of this nature, with a median cost to the seller at just over $10,000. The top price range for incentives is $350,000-$400,000 at 71% of sales.
The 4th quarter is seasonally the best time to be a home buyer in Greater Phoenix anyway, so expect new construction incentives to ramp up as well. Buyers who can shoulder the higher rate can negotiate better terms on the home they want today, and get the payment they want when rates decline in the future.
For Sellers
Higher mortgage rates are nothing new for the housing market, and the tools used to sell homes over the last 3 years are still effective today. However, sellers should be prepared for longer marketing times as the calendar approaches the holidays. It’s not uncommon to see a median of 50-60 days on market prior to an accepted contract in the 4th quarter. October is a very popular month for new listings, especially in luxury and retirement communities as the temperatures drop, but it doesn’t always coincide with a boost in demand.
With this in mind, long-term tracking tells us consistently that properties that go under contract within 15 days of listing typically get 99% of their original asking price on average. Listings with 1-2 months on market average 95% of their original asking price, and those with 3-4 months on market average 90%. Buyers have consistently negotiated around 97-97.5% of the last list price for nearly 2 years, so the closer sellers can get to where the buyers believe the price should be, the faster they will get a contract close to asking price.
August closings were down 6.3%, the first time all year that monthly sales did not outperform 2025. However, the luxury market over $1.5M continues to be strong with August sales up 15% over last year. More specifically, sales over $3M were up 59% in August with 62 closings compared to 39 last year. Luxury buyers do not rely on mortgage rates; instead, they are influenced primarily by stock market performance and corporate profits. Corporate profits hit another record in Q1 this year and the stock market has remained resilient through the year.
Commentary written by Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst with The Cromford Report
©2026 Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC
All Data Pulled from The Cromford® Report
What should Phoenix home buyers do in September 2026?
- Treat the pause as the opportunity. Cromford’s own framing is that buyers stall when rates are moving, which opens a window for anyone who can carry a higher payment temporarily and negotiate on price or terms instead.
- Ask for the incentive, because most buyers are getting one. Seller-paid closing costs or a rate buydown appeared in 59% of August sales, at a median cost to the seller of just over $10,000.
- Know that a buydown is temporary. These structures cut principal and interest by 10% to 20% for a year or two, not for the life of the loan. Plan for the payment after it expires.
- Target listings that have been sitting. Homes going under contract within 15 days average 99% of original asking, but listings at three to four months average 90%. The discount lives in the aged inventory.
- Use the fourth quarter. It is seasonally the best stretch of the year to buy in Greater Phoenix, and builder incentives are expected to increase into it.
- Check your city, not the metro. Leverage across the Valley markets I track ranges from strongly seller-leaning to strongly buyer-leaning right now.
What should Phoenix home sellers do in September 2026?
- Price for the first 15 days. Listings under contract within 15 days average 99% of original asking. One to two months averages 95%, and three to four months averages 90%. The penalty for testing a high number is roughly ten percent.
- Budget a concession into your net. A majority of August sales included one, with a median cost just over $10,000. If your home is between $350,000 and $400,000, 71% of comparable sales included one.
- Plan for a longer runway into the holidays. A median of 50 to 60 days on market before an accepted contract is normal for the fourth quarter.
- Think twice about an October listing. October draws a lot of new inventory, particularly in luxury and retirement communities, and the commentary is direct that it does not always come with matching demand.
- Do not price on the hope of lower rates. Rates rose again this month. Lower rates would help demand, but they are not a pricing strategy.
- If you are over $1.5 million, the picture is different. That segment posted double-digit growth in August while the overall market fell.
FAQ: Greater Phoenix housing market September 2026
Is Greater Phoenix a buyer’s market or seller’s market in September 2026?
The September Cromford® Report infographic does not assign a single metro-wide label this month. It describes demand as stalled back to 2023 and 2024 levels on rate volatility, with home values stable. Leverage varies sharply by city: across the ten Valley markets tracked in the Cromford® Daily Market Snapshot, the Cromford® Market Index runs from 158.3 in Scottsdale to 52.3 in Queen Creek, so the answer depends on where you are buying or selling.
Why did Phoenix home sales drop in August 2026?
Mortgage rates moved sharply. Conventional rates climbed by nearly half a percent in under two weeks ahead of a Federal Reserve decision, enough to raise a typical principal and interest payment by roughly 5%. Cromford’s analyst attributes the pullback to the volatility rather than the rate level itself, noting that more homes sold in prior years at the same or higher rates. August closings finished down 6.3%, the first month in 2026 that sales did not beat the prior year.
Are Phoenix home prices falling in 2026?
No. The September commentary describes home values as stable and states that market indicators do not support a crash in 2026, while allowing that values may glide with less demand. Home values did not crash in 2023 or 2024, when rates ran higher than they do today. This month’s infographic does not publish a metro median or average sales price.
How much are Phoenix sellers paying in concessions?
In August, 59% of all MLS sales involved a seller-paid incentive such as closing costs or a rate buydown, at a median cost to the seller of just over $10,000. Concessions are most common between $350,000 and $400,000, where 71% of sales included one. These buydowns typically reduce a buyer’s principal and interest payment by 10% to 20% for one to two years.
How long does it take to sell a home in Greater Phoenix right now?
Expect a median of 50 to 60 days on market before an accepted contract through the fourth quarter. Speed is tied closely to price: homes under contract within 15 days average 99% of original asking price, those at one to two months average 95%, and those at three to four months average 90%.
Sources and method
This Greater Phoenix housing market update uses the monthly infographic and commentary published by The Cromford® Report, covering the Arizona Regional MLS resale market. The commentary section is reproduced in full with attribution. Mortgage-rate direction comes from the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey; no rate figure is quoted from it. City-level and ZIP-level figures referenced here and across the site come from the Cromford® Daily Market Snapshot. Where the September infographic does not publish a metro figure — median price, average price, total closings, months of supply, and building permits this month — that row is omitted rather than carried forward from a prior month.
The FAQ section summarizes the main buyer, seller, pricing, concession, and marketing-time takeaways.
