Written by Andrea Scheppe, Phoenix native and full-time, award-winning REALTOR® with HomeSmart Elite, Valley Solutions Team. This update is written for home buyers, home sellers, and people moving to Arizona who need a clear read on Phoenix real estate conditions.
Q: Is Greater Phoenix a buyer’s market or seller’s market in August 2026?
A: Greater Phoenix is a mild buyer’s market metro-wide, split by price point and location. The Cromford® Demand Index and Cromford® Supply Index both declined at similar rates over the past 30 days, largely offsetting each other, so overall conditions changed very little. Closed sales are up 7.0% year over year, but prices below $1 million are flat to slightly down. The outlying cities where builders are active are buyer’s markets, while established internal cities are weak-to-moderate seller’s markets. Buyers are negotiating within about 97% of list price, and the median time on market before contract is 48 days.
August 2026 market call
Mild buyer’s market. Demand and supply both eased at similar rates, so the balance barely moved. Location and price point matter more than the metro headline.
Sales activity
June closed sales in the Arizona Regional MLS totaled 6,602, up 7.0% from last year.
Prices
The median sales price is $451,000 against an average of $622,000. The median is still about $30,000 below the May 2022 peak.
Negotiation
Buyers are negotiating within about 97% of list price, and 55% of closings last month involved seller-paid closing costs.
Greater Phoenix housing market snapshot: August 2026
| Signal | August 2026 read | What it means |
|---|
| Closed sales | June closings totaled 6,602, up 7.0% year over year. | Demand improved at both ends: sales under $800,000 rose 4% (about 221 extra sales) and sales over $800,000 rose 23% (about 209 extra sales). |
| Prices under $1M | Homes under $300,000 averaged a 1.3% price decline against last June. Homes from $300,000 to $800,000 saw price-per-square-foot declines of less than 1%. | Flat to slightly down. National headlines about record prices do not describe this part of the market. |
| Prices over $1M | Homes over $1 million posted gains of roughly 1.5% to 2%. | Luxury is pulling the metro average upward while the median stays flat. |
| Median vs average | Median sales price $451,000; average sales price $622,000. | The median is the better read on a typical sale. Only 27% of buyers paid at or above $622,000, and the median remains about $30,000 under the May 2022 peak of $480,000. |
| Marketing time | Median 48 days on market before contract, with 55% of closings involving seller-paid closing costs. | Condition and accurate pricing keep marketing times short. Expect times to lengthen through the rest of the summer. |
| New construction | New home permits remain 37% below their 2021 peak, in line with the pre-Covid 2019 rate. | Builders are proceeding with caution. Outlying builder cities sit in buyer’s markets while established internal cities are weak-to-moderate seller’s markets. |
| Mortgage rates | The 30-year fixed edged up slightly over the past week and sits a touch above where it was a year ago. Effectively flat, and not falling. | Rates remain the main filter on demand. Cromford’s commentary notes that lower rates would boost demand, but sellers should not price or plan around that possibility. |
Why Phoenix real estate feels uneven right now
Greater Phoenix is not one market. Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Arcadia, Ahwatukee, Chandler, Mesa, Queen Creek, Buckeye, and San Tan Valley can show very different leverage at the same time. Price point matters. Builder competition matters. Condition matters. So does whether the home is resale, new construction, upgraded, dated, or sitting next to better inventory.
That split is visible in the numbers this month. Sales over $800,000 grew four times faster than sales under $800,000, and prices over $1 million rose while prices under $300,000 fell. The outlying cities where builders are most active are in buyer’s markets, while established internal cities are in weak-to-moderate seller’s markets.
Metro-wide headlines are useful, but incomplete. The real pricing decision happens at the ZIP, neighborhood, property type, and comp level on a block-by-block basis. For the city-level read, see the monthly housing market updates for each Valley city.
Entry-level and lower price ranges
Homes under $300,000 averaged a 1.3% price decline against last June. Buyers have the most negotiating room here, especially when listings are dated, payment-stretched, or competing with newer inventory farther out.
Middle market
From $300,000 to $800,000, price per square foot moved less than 1%. The middle is selective. Homes that show well and are priced to recent comps move; homes priced off old expectations sit longer.
Luxury
Sales over $800,000 rose 23% year over year and homes over $1 million gained roughly 1.5% to 2%. Higher-end buyers are less rate-sensitive, but they are still selective on quality and location.
New construction areas
Permits remain 37% below the 2021 peak, so builders are cautious, but incentives still matter. Rate buydowns, closing-cost credits, and price adjustments can cap resale pricing nearby.
This month from The Cromford® Report
The commentary below is reproduced in full from The Cromford® Report monthly infographic, written by their senior housing analyst. It is the metro-wide read behind the numbers in the snapshot above.
Home Prices at a Record High? Not Exactly.
ROAD to Housing Law: What It Means for Sellers
For Buyers
The Greater Phoenix housing market remained in a mild buyer’s market entering July, with little overall change. The Cromford® Demand Index and Cromford® Supply Index both declined at similar rates over the past 30 days, largely offsetting each other’s influence on pricing trends. June closed sales in the Arizona Regional MLS totaled 6,602, up 7.0% from last year, with a 4% increase in sales under $800,000 (equivalent to an extra 221 sales) and a 23% increase in sales over $800,000 (equivalent to an extra 209 sales). Despite stronger sales, prices remained relatively flat below the $1 million price point. Homes priced below $300,000 recorded an average sales price decline of 1.3% compared with last June. Homes priced between $300,000 and $800,000 experienced average price-per-square-foot declines of less than 1%. Meanwhile, homes over $1 million posted modest gains of roughly 1.5% to 2%. This is in stark contrast to recent national headlines stating that home prices set new records in June. If we use the average sales price, then that headline holds true, but the median sales price has not reached a record high and has been stagnant for the last couple of years.
What’s the difference? In the housing market, averages will skew high when luxury sales are strong. For example, the average sales price over the last 30 days in the MLS was $622,000. This can create the impression that the typical buyer is spending that much on a home. In reality, only 27% of buyers purchased homes at or above $622,000, while 73% purchased below that figure.
The median sales price of $451,000 is $171,000 lower than the average. This means half of all buyers purchased a home for $451,000 or less over the past 30 days, making the median a much better representation of the typical transaction. This is also not a record high as it remains nearly $30,000 below the peak median price of $480,000 recorded in May 2022.
Bottom line, don’t assume that home values are currently soaring everywhere, or that luxury sales are causing all home values to rise. It’s simply the difference between averages and medians. Historically, home values have not outperformed the rate of inflation in a buyer’s market. In fact, homeowners who purchased within the past 4½ years have generally accumulated little appreciation-based equity. Greater Phoenix income growth, however, has outpaced both inflation and home appreciation for three consecutive years.
For Sellers
Now that the ROAD to Housing Act is law, its effects are unlikely to be felt immediately in the mainstream resale housing market in Greater Phoenix. Most of the changes are structured to reduce construction costs, ease regulations and increase financing options through community banks and updated HUD programs. Other provisions expand grants and forgivable loans for improving aging housing stock, such as aging single family homes owned by low-to-moderate income households. It also prohibits institutions from owning more than 350 homes (with exceptions), which will mitigate risk of future price bubbles but will not have much effect today due to low institutional participation in resale purchases.
As far as spurring new home development in Greater Phoenix, don’t expect it to happen overnight. Builders are painfully aware of what happens when too much supply is added to the market before demand increases. There are other ways to improve affordability without devaluing existing resale homes nearby. To date, new home permits remain 37% below their 2021 peak, in line with the pre-Covid 2019 rate, and total MLS supply is considered normal. The outlying cities where builders operate are in buyer’s markets while established internal cities are in weak-to-moderate seller’s markets. Expect builders to proceed with caution, but with better flexibility to ramp up construction once demand improves.
In the meantime, it’s business as usual for the resale marketplace. The median time on market before contract is 48 days, 55% of closings involved seller-paid closing costs last month, and buyers are negotiating within 97% of list price on average. Condition and competitive pricing are key to keeping marketing times short. The second half of the year is not typically as robust with buyer activity as the first half, so expect marketing times to get a little longer through the remainder of the summer. Lower mortgage rates would certainly boost demand, but sellers should not base their pricing or marketing strategy on that possibility.
Commentary written by Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst with The Cromford Report
©2026 Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC
All Data Pulled from The Cromford® Report
What should Phoenix home buyers do in August 2026?
- Know which side of $800,000 you are shopping on. Sales over $800,000 grew 23% year over year while sales under $800,000 grew 4%. Competition is not the same at both ends.
- Use days on market as leverage. The median listing goes under contract in 48 days. Anything sitting well past that is where price reductions, credits, and repairs are realistic.
- Ask for closing costs. Seller-paid closing costs appeared in 55% of closings last month. That is the most commonly won concession in this market.
- Compare resale against new construction. Builder incentives can change the true cost comparison, especially in the outlying cities that are in buyer’s markets.
- Read the micro-market. Phoenix real estate leverage changes by city, ZIP, neighborhood, condition, and price point.
What should Phoenix home sellers do in August 2026?
- Price to current competition, not the highest sale from last year. The median sales price is still about $30,000 below the May 2022 peak.
- Budget for concessions. More than half of closings last month included seller-paid closing costs, and buyers are negotiating within about 97% of list.
- Expect a longer summer. The second half of the year is not typically as active as the first, so plan for marketing times to stretch.
- Watch builder competition if your home is near active new construction corridors.
- Do not price on the hope of lower rates. Lower mortgage rates would help demand, but they are not a pricing strategy.
FAQ: Greater Phoenix housing market August 2026
Is Greater Phoenix a buyer’s market in August 2026?
Yes, mildly. The Cromford® Report describes Greater Phoenix as a mild buyer’s market, with the Demand Index and Supply Index both declining at similar rates so the balance changed very little. Leverage still varies by city: outlying builder cities are buyer’s markets while established internal cities are weak-to-moderate seller’s markets.
Are Phoenix home prices at a record high in 2026?
No. The median sales price of $451,000 remains about $30,000 below the peak median of $480,000 set in May 2022. The average sales price of $622,000 is higher because strong luxury sales skew averages upward, but only 27% of buyers paid at or above that figure.
Are homes still selling in Phoenix?
Yes. June closed sales in the Arizona Regional MLS totaled 6,602, up 7.0% from last year, with a 4% increase under $800,000 and a 23% increase over $800,000.
How long does it take to sell a home in Greater Phoenix right now?
The median time on market before contract is 48 days. Expect that to lengthen somewhat through the remainder of the summer, since the second half of the year is not typically as active for buyers.
How much are Phoenix buyers negotiating?
Buyers are negotiating within about 97% of list price on average, and 55% of closings last month involved seller-paid closing costs.
Sources and method
This Greater Phoenix housing market update uses the monthly infographic and commentary published by The Cromford® Report, covering the Arizona Regional MLS resale market. The commentary section is reproduced in full with attribution. Mortgage-rate direction comes from the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey; no rate figure is quoted. City-level and ZIP-level figures referenced across the site come from the Cromford® Daily Market Snapshot.
The FAQ section summarizes the main buyer, seller, pricing, marketing-time, and negotiation takeaways.
